J.P. Morgan simply wrote a glowing endorsement of Hipgnosis Songs Fund. Right here’s why.

MBW Reacts is a collection of brief remark items from the MBW group. They’re our ‘fast take’ reactions – by means of a music biz lens – to main leisure information tales.

J.P. Morgan issued a glowing analysis notice on UK-listed Hipgnosis Songs Fund on Monday (September 19).

“Given the long-term progress potential of the asset class, and the upper high quality (in our view) portfolio relative to [Round Hill Music], we consider SONG affords compelling worth,” mentioned J.P. Morgan, sustaining its ‘obese’ ranking on HSF’s inventory.

J.P. Morgan’s analysis notice on Hipgnosis Songs Fund was a thundering vote of confidence in HSF’s enterprise, following a current flurry of enterprise media scrutiny.

Specifically, a run of three comparable current articles within the Monetary Instances on HSF every questioned elements of Hipgnosis Songs Fund, together with:

  • The actual fact HSF hasn’t purchased a catalog prior to now 12 months;
  • The truth that it’s refusing to boost new funds;
  • The influence of present macro-economic pressures on HSF’s worth, and its funds.

We’ll get to some necessary element behind all three of these shortly, and what J.P. Morgan has to say about them.

However first issues first: Stated protection of HSF has led to some follow-up reporting, which in flip has led to the wonky conclusion in some quarters that ‘Hipgnosis has burned by means of its money’.

As a lot as that concept may deliver glee to these with the knives out for Merck Mercuriadis’ firm, in actuality it’s flat-out improper.

That’s as a result of Hipgnosis Songs Fund is not Hipgnosis; it’s one a part of a three-pronged Hipgnosis group.

That group has already spent roughly $300 million on music catalogs in 2022. Sources recommend that the present plan for this Hipgnosis group is to spend one other $300 million by the top of the yr.

In brief: Hipgnosis, the group, has entry to all capital it must do each conceivable artist/songwriter copyright acquisition in music.

It stays to be seen, nonetheless, how a rising price atmosphere may complicate this image, with rates of interest now at their highest level since 2008 within the US and UK.

Understanding Hipgnosis

To know the Hipgnosis group – and why it nonetheless has a possible pipeline of billions of {dollars} in its M&A arsenal – we first have to refresh our reminiscences of the three Hipgnosis-branded corporations:

  • Hipgnosis Songs Fund (HSF): a UK-listed FTSE 250 firm that has acquired over $2 billion in catalogs thus far, which have collectively been given an unbiased valuation of $2.7 billion;
  • Hipgnosis Songs Capital (HSC): a non-public fund, fully-funded by Blackstone, that has spent round $300 million buying copyrights in 2022 alone, from the likes of Justin Timberlake, Kenny Chesney and the Leonard Cohen property;
  • Hipgnosis Tune Administration (HSM): a ‘track administration’ and Funding Administration firm that advises on the investments of HSF and HSC, and manages the property of each.

In essence, firm (iii) – Hipgnosis Tune Administration – chooses which catalogs to spend HSF’s and HSC’s cash on.

Over three years (2018-2021), HSM constructed up a portfolio for Hipgnosis Songs Fund of ≈65,000 copyrights from writers reminiscent of Mark Ronson, Crimson Sizzling Chili Peppers, Neil Younger, Lindsey Buckingham, Tough Stewart and lots of others.

Nevertheless, final summer time, HSM confirmed that its main supply of capital for offers had successfully switched to firm (iii): Hipgnosis Songs Capital.

The preliminary dedication to HSC from Blackstone was a billion {dollars} (a mixture of fairness and debt). Sources recommend this dedication continues to be anticipated to multiply over the following few years.

It’s this fund (HSC) that has spent $300 million on music rights in 2022 up to now through HSM – and which is predicted to spend someplace close to that once more within the the rest of the yr.

Rising rates of interest, nonetheless, are more likely to put a cap on the multiples any music firm is prepared to pay for copyright buyouts within the present atmosphere.

Until potential sellers are prepared to drop their desired a number of to this degree, we might even see one thing of a cool-down within the music M&An area within the months forward.

(There’s a flip-side to this case: Some artists and songwriters could certainly be prepared to promote at a decrease a number of than their friends achieved in recent times – as a result of as soon as they’ve cash within the financial institution, high-interest charges and a battered inventory market arguably create an funding market the place mentioned cash can shortly acquire in worth.)

Why is Hipgnosis Tune Fund not elevating cash?

For informal observers of Hipgnosis Songs Fund (HSF) – which has spent over USD $2 billion on catalogs since being based in 2018 – the present halt in its spending exercise could come as a shock.

But for HSF traders, and people extra intently watching the corporate, it’s not precisely surprising.

Hipgnosis Songs Fund advised its shareholders when it raised $215 million final July that it was placing a cease on additional raises till Q2 2022 on the earliest.

The next month, in August 2021, HSF advised traders that it was “absolutely invested”, following acquisitions of a number of catalogs (utilizing that $215m) together with music by the Crimson Sizzling Chili Peppers and Christine McVie of Fleetwood Mac.

Q2 2022 has now been and gone, which implies HSF is free from its self-imposed moratorium on elevating cash. However market situations don’t seem like they did final summer time.

Specifically, with the twin shocks of a steep rise in inflation plus the warfare in Ukraine, public share costs throughout the board have been hit arduous.

Publicly traded music compares haven’t been proof against this pattern: Hipgnosis Songs Fund is down 20% YTD in 2022; Common Music Group is down 27%; Reservoir is down 33%; Warner Music Group is down 42%; Spotify is down 50%; Consider is down 58%.

It’s subsequently unlikely that corporations like these would select to boost new fairness (through share points) at present inventory costs as it might harm the holdings of present shareholders. In accordance, HSF has opted not to take action.

One other barrier to Hipgnosis elevating cash proper now: these rising rates of interest.

HSF at present has a debt stack of $600 million. The price of servicing that debt will increase with each rate of interest rise.

That being mentioned, HSF confirmed to shareholders this week that it has now secured a brand new debt refinancing bundle. J.P. Morgan was impressed with this information, saying this refi is “anticipated to decrease [HSF’s] facility price and enhance its measurement”.

As MBW defined in November, HSF – as long as it has the funds out there – can decide to accumulate a 20% stake alongside HSC (through the latter’s billion-dollar-plus pot of Blackstone cash) in any catalog buyout proposed by HSM.

Why is Hipgnosis Songs Fund’s Professional-forma income declining?

One main subject raised by monetary media shops in current weeks: The ‘Professional-forma’ income (PFAR) of Hipgnosis Songs Fund declined YoY in HSF’s FY 2022 (to finish of March 2022).

On the floor of it, this actually appears to be like troubling: ‘Professional-forma’ income (PFAR), which HSF voluntarily publishes, reveals the royalty income earned by catalogs in a calendar yr primarily based on royalty statements obtained, no matter whether or not the songs had been owned by the corporate over the interval analyzed. It’s a ‘pure’ like-for-like reflection of how catalogs are performing.

You’d anticipate a certain quantity of decline every year in ‘Professional-forma’ income at an organization like Hipgnosis Songs Fund because of newer catalogs; i.e. catalogs which can be nonetheless ‘leveling off’ from their industrial peak earlier than they hit a long-tail plateau.

In flip, you’d anticipate these declines to be offset by an increase in earnings from older catalogs which have already hit that plateau.

For instance, inside HSF’s catalog of songs, you’d anticipate Form Of You (launched in 2017) to nonetheless be on a robust decay curve, however you’d anticipate classics from Neil Younger, Lindsey Buckingham, Bon Jovi and so on. to be rising annual income as they journey streaming’s progress.

So what went awry inside HSF’s ‘Professional-forma’ income in FY 2022? In a phrase: Covid.

Performing rights societies throughout the globe usually account to publishing rights-holders 12 to 18 months behind the second of consumption. Inside HSF’s numbers proper now, that lag is essential.

In the event you return 12 to 18 months from the top of HSF’s newest fiscal yr (March 2022), you land on the coronary heart of the best degree of damaging influence that COVID lockdowns had on all companies.

Thus, there’s a considerable quantity of efficiency revenues from around the globe – music being performed in bars, eating places, retailers, nightclubs, and the entire reside performances by artists – that will have been there in ‘regular’ situations however usually are not mirrored in HSF’s numbers.

“We anticipate a really robust bounce again in [Hipgnosis songs Fund’s] efficiency earnings.”

J.P. Morgan

This Covid-driven income deficit is arguably extra pronounced for corporations like HSF than it’s for the most important music corporations, as a result of HSF is solely within the catalog enterprise; it doesn’t have a streaming money bump from new frontline hits to offset the damaging influence from Covid lockdowns.

J.P. Morgan this week famous why it was unworried by the ‘Professional-forma’ decline in Hipgnosis Songs Fund’s numbers for FY 2022, stating: “We anticipate a really robust bounce again in [HSF’s] efficiency earnings (ex the efficiency aspect of streaming, which is assessed by SONG as ‘streaming’ however in actuality is a mixture of mechanical and efficiency), which was late to indicate up within the PFAR numbers, but additionally late to get well given the lag vs UMG and WMG.”

The early indicators of that restoration had been really already there inside HSF’s FY 2022 numbers:

  • For the complete calendar yr 2021, HSF’s PFAR was certainly down 5.3% YoY;
  • However within the second half of 2021 alone (July- December), HSF’s PFAR was up (vs the primary half of 2021) by double digits (+11.6%, see under)

(How a lot HSF traders actually care concerning the PFAR vs. the corporate’s potential to pay its anticipated dividends is one other matter. At its AGM this week, Hipgnosis confirmed it might pay its interim 2022 dividend in October on the anticipated value, and reiterated it was on target to pay its full-year dividend, additionally on the anticipated value, in March 2023. J.P. Morgan appeared happy by this information.)

Hipgnosis Tune Administration x Blackstone

One other query mark raised by current reporting factors particularly to Hipgnosis Tune Administration (HSM) and Blackstone’s degree of involvement within the firm.

Nearly a yr in the past, Hipgnosis introduced its partnership with Blackstone, with the funding large absolutely funding Hipgnosis Songs Capital (HSC), whereas making an undisclosed funding into Hipgnosis Tune Administration (HSM).

MBW has performed some digging, and understands that Blackstone owns 51% of HSM, with Mercuriadis and his household proudly owning 35% and long-standing Hipgnosis allies, together with Nile Rodgers, proudly owning the rest. As CEO, Mercuriadis runs the corporate.

Critics of this mannequin may recommend that Blackstone’s majority (51%) possession of HSM might give the non-public, Blackstone-funded Hipgnosis fund (HSC) unfair desire inside the Hipgnosis group (the general public fund, HSF, is owned by many different exterior traders, together with the Church of England).

On a extra optimistic notice, Hipgnosis’ strategic significance to Blackstone is definitely highlighted by advantage of the controlling stake that Blackstone determined to accumulate in HSM. (Plus, as talked about, HSF – as long as it may discover the cash – has blanket co-investment rights on every part HSM sources and seeks to accumulate.)

Whatever the Hipgnosis group construction, the importance of getting Blackstone as a dedicated investor in music rights shouldn’t be underestimated.

Blackstone had $881 billion in whole property below administration (AUM) in FY 2021, and can probably have someplace near a trillion {dollars} in whole property below administration by the top of FY 2022.

As talked about earlier: Hipgnosis’ entry to piles upon piles of personal capital isn’t in query.

A controversial low cost price – and a few very well timed headwinds

One other facet picked up in current reporting from the Monetary Instances and others was the way in which during which Hipgnosis Songs Fund (the UK-listed firm) is independently valued each six months.

To worth HSF, the corporate turns to a gaggle of music business specialists inside Citrin Cooperman. This group beforehand operated as Massarsky Consulting earlier than being acquired by Citrin Cooperman earlier this yr.

Questions have been raised over Citrin Cooperman’s insistence that an 8.5% ‘low cost price’ stays enough for music valuations regardless of quickly rising rates of interest within the US, UK and elsewhere.

To maintain it easy: If this low cost price was to be elevated by Citrin, it might decrease the worth of Hipgnosis Songs Fund on a NAV (Web Asset Worth) foundation.

J.P. Morgan, although, says it continues to be happy with the 8.5% low cost price, and sees no want for adjustment.

The funding firm mentioned in its analysis notice this week: “We really assume an 8.5% low cost price appeared massively conservative earlier within the yr till US lengthy charges began to rise… now we consider it appears to be like affordable given the still-big threat premium and decrease beta of music because it has turn into a subscription-based utility annuity stream.”

After all, with heavy inflation, a dwindling inventory market, and the Fed ratcheting up these rates of interest, corporations like Hipgnosis Songs Fund are having to deal with some substantial macroeconomic headwinds at the moment.

But J.P. Morgan notes that there’s additionally a widespread variety of ‘tail-winds’ serving to increase the long run prospects for HSF (and the broader Hipgnosis group).

The J.P. Morgan analysis notice this week, penned by Christopher Brown and Adam Kelly, famous the current ‘CRB III’ resolution, which upheld higher mechanical charges for songwriters and publishers within the US for the years 2018-2022.

In consequence, the likes of Spotify, Amazon Music and different streamers are having to pay one-time cash to publishers to be able to fulfill retrospective charges on this interval: Warner Music Group, for instance, not too long ago reported a $17 million windfall from the CRB III catch-up course of in calendar Q2.

J.P. Morgan additionally likes the look of the recently-inked ‘CRB IV’ settlement between publishers and streaming companies within the States, which might set the mechanical headline price paid to pubcos at 15.35% of every streamer’s US income.

“We’re optimistic about income [at Hipgnosis Songs Fund] over the approaching yr, with [many] optimistic drivers.”

J.P. Morgan

If ratified by the Copyright Royalty Board judges within the US, this can barely enhance the mechanical price paid to publishers from 2023-2027 within the US because of CRB III.

What’s extra, the historic power of the US greenback vs. the British pound works in Hipgnosis Songs Fund’s favor on the subject of paying its UK dividends (the vast majority of the corporate’s revenues are generated within the US).

Mixed with HSF’s debt refinancing, this run of reports has put J.P. Morgan in a buoyant temper.

The funding agency’s notice this week mentioned it was “optimistic about income [at HSF] over the approaching yr, with [many] optimistic drivers”, together with an anticipated enhance in streaming subscription income and potential value rises on companies like Spotify.

J.P. Morgan can also be eager on the influence that the Mechanical Licensing Collective (MLC) is having within the States, forecasting that it “ought to result in greater payouts from US streaming [to HSF], with extra environment friendly, commission-free collections from DSPs”.

Moreover, J.P. Morgan means that HSF will profit from some “first time contributions to return from rising digital platforms, not hitherto in SONG’s proforma annual income”.Music Enterprise Worldwide

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